You: That is still no help. Even though I know that there are only two possibilities, I still do no know which one is the most likely.

Aaron: In that case, you must put your faith in the one that allows you to reap the biggest benefit if you are correct.

You: Let's imagine that tomorrow I will go on a game show. On that show I will be allowed to flip a coin. If it comes up tails, then nothing happens, but if it comes up heads I will be given fabulous wealth. Would it make sense for me to go heavily into debt today because I may be rich tomorrow? Can I assume that the coin will come up heads because that is what I most desire?

Aaron: That is really not the same thing.

You: I don't see how it's any different.